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  • Oliviero Beha
     
    24
    nov.
    2004

    Isae: scende la fiducia dei consumatori italiani

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    da www.corriere.it Preoccupazioni anche sul fronte dell'occupazione Dopo cinque mesi consecutivi di rialzi a novembre l'indice ? sceso a 103,9 rispetto a 105,6 di ottobre MILANO - Consumatori pessimisti sul futuro economico dell'Italia. Dopo cinque mesi consecutivi di rialzi, ? infatti scesa a novembre la fiducia dei consumatori italiani. Lo rileva l'Isae nell'inchiesta mensile precisando, per?, che permane tuttavia su livelli superiori a quelli medi del terzo trimestre dell'anno con l'indice destagionalizzato calato a 103,9 (da 105,6 di ottobre).

    La flessione, spiega l’Istituto di studi e analisi economica, ? dovuta principalmente al peggioramento delle valutazioni sul quadro economico generale del Paese, il cui sotto-indice ? diminuito da 94,8 a 91,5. I consumatori hanno dato giudizi poco favorevoli sulla situazione corrente (da 104,3 a 101,4 il relativo sotto-indice) mentre sono sembrati pi? ottimisti sulle prospettive a breve termine, con il relativo sotto-indice aumentato da 104,4 a 106.
    I consumatori rimangono prudenti circa la convenienza e le prospettive di acquisto di beni durevoli, e vedono invece favorevolmente la convenienza presente e le prospettive future di risparmio. Dal lato dei prezzi, i recenti rincari del petrolio hanno influenzato leggermente i giudizi relativi agli aumenti degli ultimi 12 mesi, ma non significativamente le previsioni per il prossimo futuro.
    Quanto alle attese sulla disoccupazione, i consumatori hanno espresso qualche apprensione facendo salire il saldo da 34 a 40.
    LE ANALISI – Secondo Marco Valli, analista finanziario di Ubm: ?C’? una grossa divergenza tra l’andamento del clima presente, che registra un notevole calo, e l’indice delle aspettative future che invece sale. Questa dicotomia si era gi? manifestata il mese scorso quando erano migliorate di quattro punti le aspettative mentre il clima corrente appariva fermo. Guardando a un’altra scomposizione si rileva un significativo peggioramento della situazione a livello nazionale, da -89 a -104, mentre meno marcato ? il deterioramento della situazione personale, ferma sui livelli del mese precedente. In sintesi direi che, sebbene il dato sia inferiore alle aspettative, una correzione poteva anche starci dopo cinque mesi di rialzi. In ogni caso, il fatto che la situazione economica delle famiglie sia immutata ci dice che l’indice generale probabilmente sovrastimava l’effettiva percezione delle famiglie sulla loro situazione finanziaria ed ? questa che impatta di pi? sulle future decisioni di spesa?.
    Per Giada Giani analista Banca Intesa ?Ci si aspettava una continuazione del trend al rialzo anche per il mese di novembre e invece non ? stato cos?, si ? verificata una piccola correzione. E’ vero anche che negli ultimi mesi gli incrementi su base mensile sono stati sostenuti, quindi ci pu? stare questa piccola correzione?.

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